Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input-output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19

Author(s)

Haddad, Eduardo A. ^[1] ; Perobelli, Fernando S. ^[2] ; Araujo, Inacio F. ^[1] ; Bugarin, Karina S. S. ^[3]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Econ, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Fed Juiz de Fora, Dept Econ, Juiz De Fora - Brazil

^[3] Econ & Polit Res Grp, Brasilia, DF - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: SPATIAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; v. 16, n. 3, p. 252-270, JUL 3 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 4

Abstract

This paper explores the use of simulations in policy decision-making in the Brazilian State of Sao Paulo in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a methodology for assessing the daily economic costs of control strategies for mitigating the effects of coronavirus. The method is based on the partial hypothetical extraction approach to input-output systems. Simulated daily scenarios based on different levels of compliance to the control measures are used to help guide the design of sectoral and territorial-based policies to ease lockdown against the coronavirus outbreak, taking into account the economic and sanitary trade-offs. We present examples of simulations that can substantiate top-level decision-making. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 19/00057-9 - Agricultural and agro-industrial sustainability in Chile: modeling the impacts of climate change and natural disasters in an integrated framework
• Grantee: Inácio Fernandes de Araújo Junior
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Technical Training Program - Technical Training
• FAPESP's process: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change
• Grantee: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants