Advanced search
Start date
(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Dual polarization radar Lagrangian parameters: a statistics-based probabilistic nowcasting model

Full text
Medina, Bruno Lisboa [1, 2] ; Machado, Luiz A. T. [1]
Total Authors: 2
[1] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Cachoeira Paulista - Brazil
[2] Univ Alabama Huntsville, Dept Atmospher Sci, 320 Sparkman Dr NW, Huntsville, AL 35805 - USA
Total Affiliations: 2
Document type: Journal article
Source: NATURAL HAZARDS; v. 89, n. 2, p. 705-721, NOV 2017.
Web of Science Citations: 0

The aim of this study is to present a statistics-based Lagrangian nowcasting model to predict intense rainfall convective events based on dual polarization radar parameters. The data employed in this study are from X-band radar collected during the CHUVA-Vale campaign from November 2011 to March 2012 in southeast Brazil. The model was designed to catch the important physical characteristics of storms, such as the presence of supercooled water above 0 degrees C isotherm, vertical ice crystals in high levels, graupel development in the mixed-phase layer and storm vertical growth, using polarimetric radar in the mixed-phase layer. These parameters are based on different polarimetric radar quantities in the mixed phase, such as negative differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP), low correlation coefficient (qhv) and high reflectivity Zh values. Storms were tracked to allow the Lagrangian temporal derivation. The model is based on the estimation of the proportion of radar echo volume in the mixed phase that is likely to be associated with intense storm hydrometeors. Thirteen parameters are used in this probabilistic nowcasting model, which is able to predict the potential for future storm development. The model distinguishes two different categories of storms, intense and non-intense rain cell events by determining how many parameters reach the ``intense'' storm threshold. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 09/15235-8 - Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil: a contribution to cloud resolving modeling and to the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)
Grantee:Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
Support type: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 15/14497-0 - Nowcasting of intense thunderstorms and understanding of the physical processes inside clouds: the SOS-CHUVA (Severe Weather Observation System)
Grantee:Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado
Support type: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants