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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections

Full text
Author(s):
Marengo, Jose A. [1] ; Bernasconi, Mauro [2]
Total Authors: 2
Affiliation:
[1] Natl Ctr Early Warning & Monitoring Nat Diasaters, BR-12630000 Sao Paulo - Brazil
[2] Univ Fed Alagoas, Maceio, Alagoas - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 2
Document type: Journal article
Source: Climatic Change; v. 129, n. 1-2, p. 103-115, MAR 2015.
Web of Science Citations: 34
Abstract

The focus of this study is to investigate the risk of aridification in the semiarid lands of Northeast Brazil, using a variety of observational information and climate change projections for the future, by means of aridity indices. We use the Budyko and United Nations aridity indices to assess the extent of areas with semi-arid and arid conditions in the present, and for the future out to 2100. Climate projections are derived from the downscaling of the HadCM3 model for the A1B scenario using the Eta regional model with horizontal resolution of 40 km. Consistent with global climate model projections from IPCC AR5, regional climate change projections suggest an increase in dryness in the region, with rainfall reductions, temperature increases and water deficits and longer dry spells, leading to drought and arid conditions expected to prevail by the second half of the 21th century. The area with arid conditions is projected to grow to cover areas currently with dry sub humid conditions, and become larger by 2100. This increase in aridity, combined with land degradation may increase the risk of desertification. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 13/50538-7 - Understanding the causes of the biases that determine the onset of the rainy season in Amazonia in climate models using GoAmazon-CHUVA measurements
Grantee:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
FAPESP's process: 11/51843-2 - Impact of climate extremes on ecosystems and human health in Brazil: PULSE-Brazil
Grantee:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
FAPESP's process: 08/58161-1 - Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation option
Grantee:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 08/57719-9 - Program on Climate Change - INCT CLIMA
Grantee:Carlos Afonso Nobre
Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants