Roads and forest edges facilitate yellow fever virus dispersion

Author(s):Show less -

Ribeiro Prist, Paula ^[1] ; Reverberi Tambosi, Leandro ^{[1, 2]} ; Filipe Mucci, Luis ^[3] ; Pinter, Adriano ^[3] ; Pereira de Souza, Renato ^[4] ; de Lara Muylaert, Renata ^[5] ; Roger Rhodes, Jonathan ^[6] ; Henrique Comin, Cesar ^[7] ; da Fontoura Costa, Luciando ^[8] ; Lang D'Agostini, Tatiana ^[9] ; Telles de Deus, Juliana ^[3] ; Pavao, Monica ^[10] ; Port-Carvalho, Marcio ^{[11, 12]} ; Del Castillo Saad, Leila ^[9] ; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice ^[13] ; Fernandes Spinola, Roberta Maria ^[9] ; Metzger, Jean Paul ^[1]

Affiliation:Show less -

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Biosci, Dept Ecol, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Fed Univ ABC, Ctr Engn Modelling & Appl Social Sci, Santo Andre, SP - Brazil

^[3] SUCEN Endem Control Superintendence, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[4] Praca Cel Vitoriano, Adolfo Lutz Inst 12, Taubate, SP - Brazil

^[5] Massey Univ, Hopkirk Res Inst, Mol Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Lab, Palmerston North - New Zealand

^[6] Univ Queensland, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Brisbane, Qld - Australia

^[7] Univ Fed Sao Carlos, Dept Comp Sci, Sao Carlos - Brazil

^[8] Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Carlos Inst Phys, Sao Carlos - Brazil

^[9] Publ Hlth Branch, Coordinat Dis Control, Ctr Epidemiol Surveillance Alexandre Vranj, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[10] Infrastructure & Environm Secretariat Sao Paulo, Environm Res Inst, Geoproc & Spatial Anal Core, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[11] Infrastructure & Environm Secretariat Sao Paulo, Environm Res Inst, Conservat Biodivers Nucleus, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[12] Inst Pesquisas Jardim Bot Rio de Janeiro, Natl Sch Trop Botanical, Post Grad Program Biodivers Conservat Unit, Rio De Janeiro - Brazil

^[13] Univ Sao Paulo, Epidemiol Dept Publ Hlth Fac, Sao Paulo - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY; v. 59, n. 1 OCT 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

Landscape connectivity is important for a wide range of ecological processes, including to disease spread, once it describes the degree to which landscapes facilitate or impede vector and hosts dispersion. Understanding connectivity is extremely important to identify where pathogens can move, and at what speed, allowing the organization of vaccination campaigns or other preventive measures. To better understand the effects of landscape connectivity on yellow fever virus (YFV) dispersion in Brazil, we used a network approach and modelled the movement of non-human primates' cases, the so-called epizootic events, over time. The networks consider each epizootic event as a node and the dispersion between nodes as links. Those links were established considering, respectively, the date of each epizootic event, the distance among the nodes and the permeability of the landscape between each pair of nodes. Our results demonstrated that on average YFV dispersed 1.42 km/day, with the largest movement being 6.9 km/day. Dispersions were longer in summer (1.2 km/day) than in winter (0.22 km/day). Most dispersal movements occurred up to 1 km/day (71%) and within a week after the arrival of the virus in the source node (73%), except in winter, where dispersions occurred within a period of up to 20 days. The best model indicates that YFV disperses mainly through roads adjacent to forest areas, and along forest edges (within a range of 100 m) in interface with agricultural areas, water and forestry areas. Core areas of urban, agricultural and forest regions were important barriers for virus movement. Synthesis and applications. Through landscape connectivity analyses, we provided here the first evidence that highly fragmented landscapes with a wide road network and large densities of forest edges facilitate yellow fever virus propagation, and that the maintenance of large blocks of forest can help to inhibit this spread. These results can contribute to guide forest restoration and landscape management actions in order to amplify health benefits related to restoration projects, in addition to their benefits for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/09125-4 - Representation, characterization and modeling of biological images using complex networks
• Grantee: Cesar Henrique Comin
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• FAPESP's process: 18/14389-0 - Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics and Epidemiology (CADDE)
• Grantee: Ester Cerdeira Sabino
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 15/22308-2 - Intermediate representations in Computational Science for knowledge discovery
• Grantee: Roberto Marcondes Cesar Junior
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 18/23364-1 - Spatial-temporal dynamics of yellow fever virus in the state of São Paulo, Brazil
• Grantee: Paula Ribeiro Prist
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• FAPESP's process: 17/11666-0 - Yellow fever: transmission risk due to landscape changes and climate alterations
• Grantee: Paula Ribeiro Prist
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral