Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation option

• Grant number: 08/58161-1
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• Start date: December 01, 2010
• End date: November 30, 2014
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Agreement: CNPq - Pronex
• Principal Investigator: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Grantee: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Host Institution: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). São José dos Campos , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: São José dos Campos
• Principal investigators: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo ; Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti ; Regina Célia dos Santos Alvalá
• Associated research grant(s): 11/20636-1 - The Antarctic ice mantle and the climate in South America, AV.BR
• Associated scholarship(s): 14/15080-2 - Water insurance as climate and land use change adaptation tool for optimization of water permits under water transfer conditions, BP.MS; 13/06611-1 - Detention and biorretention for control of the diffuse pollution in the urban drainage: approach experimental-adaptive by ecohydrologic base, BP.DR; 13/16202-1 - Service-oriented Middleware that dynamically manages in real-time heterogeneous geosensors in flood management, BP.MS; + associated scholarships 13/09742-0 - An update of the Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index for Brazil, BP.IC; 13/04485-9 - Modes of variability of the rainfall in São Paulo: local, regional and remote connections, BP.MS; 12/22013-4 - Water footprint as a tool for ecosystem services valuation at watersheds under climate change, BP.DR; 12/18675-1 - AGORA: a geospatial open collaborative architecture for building resilience against disasters and climate change impacts in vulnerable communities, BE.PQ; 11/09325-4 - Air pollution and urban landscape in São Paulo city, BP.IC; 11/09482-2 - Climate change in São Paulo and New York, BE.PQ; 11/13976-0 - Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Brazil and strategies for adaptation options, BP.PD; 11/08579-2 - Environmental impacts caused by land use and occupation, BP.IC - associated scholarships

Abstract

The Earth System Science Center CCST of the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research INPE is submitting a research proposal entitled: Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and strategies for Adaptation options. This project is coordinated by Dr. Jose Marengo, Senior Scientist from the CCST/INPE.The project is divided in 7 components, led by scientists from INPE, the Center of Technology and Space, Universities of the State of Sao Paulo, and it includes almost 50 scientist from various institutions of Brazil and from other countries. The sustainability of development in Brazil is strongly linked to the capacity of responding to the challenges associated with climate change. Brazil is vulnerable to present-day climate change and will be profoundly impacted by projected climate changes in the future. The objective of this project is to develop reseach focused on the areas of impacts and vulnerability and their application to indentify adaptation options to climate change. The project constitutes a step futher to the production of future climate scenarios and detection and attribution studies, making use of a new generation of regional climate scenarios being generated at INPE. We aim to establish the base for studies and assessments for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies in Brazil, using climate and vulnerability indices based on environmental, geographical-geophysical and social information, to indentify areas under risk to climate stress, and to map vulnerability of population nation and statewide. Some emphasis is on climate extremes and their impacts on water resources and planning and natural disasters of meteorological origin at national scale. Specific studies of vulnerablity and risk in the State of Sao Paulo, for the Serra do Mar, Paraiba do Sul Valley regions, the city of Sao Carlos and Campinas. It is clear that the genration of high-quality scientfic nformation to assist public policy in the areas of adaptation and mitigation. (AU)

Scientific publications

(30)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

FURQUIM, GUSTAVO; PESSIN, GUSTAVO; FAICAL, BRUNO S.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; UEYAMA, JO. Improving the accuracy of a flood forecasting model by means of machine learning and chaos theory. NEURAL COMPUTING & APPLICATIONS, v. 27, n. 5, SI, p. 1129-1141, JUL 2016. (12/22550-0, 14/19076-0, 08/58161-1)

DAVI GASPARINI FERNANDES CUNHA; MARIA DO CARMO CALIJURI; EDUARDO MARIO MENDIONDO. Integração entre curvas de permanência de quantidade e qualidade da água como uma ferramenta para a gestão eficiente dos recursos hídricos. Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, v. 17, n. 4, p. 369-376, 2012-12-00. (08/58161-1, 08/55636-9)

TORRES, ROGER RODRIGUES; MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO. Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 112, n. 1-2, p. 253-272, APR 2013. (08/58161-1)

TORRES, ROGER R.; LAPOLA, DAVID M.; MARENGO, JOSE A.; LOMBARDO, MAGDA A.. Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil. Climatic Change, v. 115, n. 3-4, p. 597-609, DEC 2012. (08/58161-1)

MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO; TOMASELLA, JAVIER; SOARES, WAGNER R.; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; NOBRE, CARLOS A.. Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin Climatological and Hydrological context of recent floods. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 107, n. 1-2, p. 73-85, JAN 2012. (08/58161-1)

SOLMAN, SILVINA A.; SANCHEZ, E.; SAMUELSSON, P.; DA ROCHA, R. P.; LI, L.; MARENGO, J.; PESSACG, N. L.; REMEDIO, A. R. C.; CHOU, S. C.; BERBERY, H.; et al. Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties. Climate Dynamics, v. 41, n. 5-6, p. 1139-1157, SEP 2013. (08/58161-1)

FABIO DE OLIVEIRA SANCHES; ROBERTO VERDUM; GILBERTO FISCH. Estudo de tendência de chuvas de longo prazo. Rev. Ambient. Água, v. 8, n. 3, p. 214-228, 2013-12-00. (08/58161-1)

TAFFARELLO, DENISE; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; CALIJURI, MARIA DO CARMO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Field investigations of the 2013-14 drought through quali-quantitative freshwater monitoring at the headwaters of the Cantareira System, Brazil. WATER INTERNATIONAL, v. 41, n. 5, p. 776-800, SEP 2016. (12/22013-4, 14/15080-2, 08/58161-1)

MARENGO, J.; CHOU, S.; MOURAO, C.; SOLMAN, S.; SANCHEZ, E.; SAMUELSSON, P.; DA ROCHA, R. P.; LI, L.; PESSACG, N.; REMEDIO, A. R. C.; et al. Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, v. 41, n. 11-12, p. 2937-2955, DEC 2013. (08/58161-1)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; VALVERDE, MARIA C.; OBREGON, GUILLERMO O.. Observed and projected changes in rainfall extremes in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo. CLIMATE RESEARCH, v. 57, n. 1, p. 61-72, 2013. (08/58161-1)

HORITA, FLAVIO E. A.; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO; DEGROSSI, LIVIA C.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; UEYAMA, JO. Development of a spatial decision support system for flood risk management in Brazil that combines volunteered geographic information with wireless sensor networks. Computers & Geosciences, v. 80, p. 84-94, JUL 2015. (12/22550-0, 08/58161-1, 12/18675-1)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; CHOU, SIN CHAN; KAY, GILLIAN; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; PESQUERO, JOSE F.; SOARES, WAGNER R.; SANTOS, DANIEL C.; LYRA, ANDRE A.; SUEIRO, GUSTAVO; BETTS, RICHARD; et al. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, So Francisco and the Parana River basins. Climate Dynamics, v. 38, n. 9-10, p. 1829-1848, MAY 2012. (08/58161-1)

NUNES, LUCI HIDALGO; OZHAN, E. A Database of Severe Impacts in the Coast of Southeastern Brazil. GLOBAL CONGRESS ON ICM: LESSONS LEARNED TO ADDRESS NEW CHALLENGES, VOLS. 1 AND 2, v. N/A, p. 11-pg., 2013-01-01. (08/58161-1)

OBREGON, GUILLERMO O.; MARENGO, JOSE A.; NOBRE, CARLOS A.. Rainfall and climate variability: long-term trends in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo in the 20th century. CLIMATE RESEARCH, v. 61, n. 2, p. 93-107, SEP 2014. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.. A blue/green water-based accounting framework for assessment of water security. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 50, n. 9, p. 7187-7205, SEP 2014. (12/05515-6, 08/58161-1, 11/11653-0)

BOERS, N.; BOOKHAGEN, B.; BARBOSA, H. M. J.; MARWAN, N.; KURTHS, J.; MARENGO, J. A.. Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v. 5, OCT 2014. (13/50538-7, 13/50510-5, 08/58161-1, 11/50151-0)

BEDER, DELANO MEDEIROS; UEYAMA, JO; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO; CHAIM, MARCOS LORDELLO. FlexFT: A Generic Framework for Developing Fault-Tolerant Applications in the Sensor Web. International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, 2013. (08/57870-9, 08/05346-4, 08/58161-1)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; OLIVEIRA, PAULO TARSO S.. Assessing uncertainties in surface water security: An empirical multimodel approach. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 51, n. 11, p. 9013-9028, NOV 2015. (12/05515-6, 15/05134-0, 11/11653-0, 08/58161-1)

CAMARINHA, P. I. M.; CANAVESI, V.; ALVALA, R. C. S.. Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in a coastal region in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 14, n. 9, p. 2449-2468, 2014. (08/58161-1)

TAFFARELLO, DENISE; SRINIVASAN, RAGHAVAN; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; BITTENCOURT GUIMARAES, JOAO LUIS; CALIJURI, MARIA DO CARMO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 22, n. 9, p. 4699-4723, SEP 7 2018. (12/22013-4, 14/50848-9, 08/58161-1, 14/15080-2)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; BERNASCONI, MAURO. Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections. Climatic Change, v. 129, n. 1-2, p. 103-115, MAR 2015. (13/50538-7, 11/51843-2, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9)

RODRIGUES, DULCE B. B.; GUPTA, HOSHIN V.; SERRAT-CAPDEVILA, ALEIX; OLIVEIRA, PAULO T. S.; MARIO MENDIONDO, E.; MADDOCK, III, THOMAS; MAHMOUD, MOHAMMED. Contrasting American and Brazilian Systems for Water Allocation and Transfers. JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, v. 141, n. 7, JUL 2015. (12/05515-6, 08/58161-1, 11/11653-0)

FURQUIM, GUSTAVO; PESSIN, GUSTAVO; FAICAL, BRUNO S.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.; UEYAMA, JO. Improving the accuracy of a flood forecasting model by means of machine learning and chaos theory. NEURAL COMPUTING & APPLICATIONS, v. 27, n. 5, p. 13-pg., 2016-07-01. (08/58161-1, 14/19076-0, 13/18859-8, 12/22550-0)

DRUMOND, A.; MARENGO, J.; AMBRIZZI, T.; NIETO, R.; MOREIRA, L.; GIMENO, L.. The role of the Amazon Basin moisture in the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle: a Lagrangian analysis. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 18, n. 7, p. 2577-2598, 2014. (08/58101-9, 08/58161-1, 08/57719-9, 13/50538-7)

LINK, DANIEL; HORITA, FLAVIO E. A.; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO; HELLINGRATH, BERND; GHASEMIVANDHONARYAR, SHABDIZ; ASSOC INFORMAT SYST. A Method Extracting Task-related Information from Social Media based on Structured Domain Knowledge. AMCIS 2015 PROCEEDINGS, v. N/A, p. 16-pg., 2015-01-01. (08/58161-1, 12/18675-1)

DA SILVA, LIGIA A.; SATYAMURTY, PRAKKI. Evolution of the Lorenz Energy Cycle in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the South American Sector of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, v. 26, n. 10, p. 3466-3481, MAY 2013. (11/13976-0, 08/58161-1)

MARENGO, JOSE A.; TOMASELLA, JAVIER; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; SOARES, WAGNER R.; RODRIGUEZ, DANIEL A.. The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 38, JUN 22 2011. (08/58161-1)

BOERS, NIKLAS; RHEINWALT, ALJOSCHA; BOOKHAGEN, BODO; BARBOSA, HENRIQUE M. J.; MARWAN, NORBERT; MARENGO, JOSE; KURTHS, JUERGEN. The South American rainfall dipole: A complex network analysis of extreme events. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 41, n. 20, p. 7397-7405, OCT 28 2014. (08/58161-1)

HORITA, FLAVIO E. A.; LINK, DANIEL; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO; HELLINGRATH, BERND; ASSOC INFORMAT SYST. A Framework for the Integration of Volunteered Geographic Information into Humanitarian Logistics. AMCIS 2014 PROCEEDINGS, v. N/A, p. 12-pg., 2014-01-01. (08/58161-1, 11/23274-3)

BEDER, DELANO MEDEIROS; UEYAMA, JO; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO; CHAIM, MARCOS LORDELLO. FlexFT: A Generic Framework for Developing Fault-Tolerant Applications in the Sensor Web. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISTRIBUTED SENSOR NETWORKS, v. N/A, p. 12-pg., 2013-01-01. (08/58161-1, 08/57870-9, 08/05346-4)